Diplomacy Scholars: Preparing for China's Fall


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An article on the Diplomacy Scholars website predicted
that in the next 10 years, China is likely to face a significant
economic and political crisis, or even become involved
in a military conflict.
The article stated that the Soviet Union's sudden disintegration
caught the U.S. government and the CIA off guard.
In order to avoid accidents, they could educate themselves
regarding the political struggle in China, economic slowdown,
increasing territorial disputes with neighboring countries,
environmental disasters, and the lack of new political reform ideas.
The article said that what kind of effects from China's
unexpected economic collapse or serious political crisis,
let alone a military conflict should become part
of the national strategic planning.

Diplomacy Scholars published Preparing for China's Fall
on November 21.
Its author, Michael Auslin, is a scholar
of the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, DC.
The article pointed out that more and more China observers
have issued an alert on the many aspects of China's crisis.
The authors provided a list of issues that global governments
and policy analysts should pay attention to.

The first is divisions and scandals at the high level CCP.

The author believes that the Bo Xilai case revealed the power
struggle within Zhongnanhai and shocking corruption at the high level.

The second is the economic slowdown.
China's economy slowed significantly this year (2012).
It has been reported that in 2010, there were 180,000 protests
and uprisings all over the country.
The weak economy undoubtedly put serious pressure
on China's social and political system.
As China faces local debt crises and real estate market
collapses in major cities, the authors argued that
either local debt or a real estate crash will bring
untold consequences to economic growth.
Meanwhile, the bad consequences of the one-child policy
are starting to show.
He added, in this century, China will face serious
demographic challenges,
and the shrinking labor force will be a drag on
economic growth in the next few years.

American pro-democracy activists Cai Guihua: "Under
the current economic status --extraordinarily high prices
and income and consumption inequality, people simply
have no money.
If you want to stimulate domestic demand market
consumption, you will fail."

Jason Ma, NTDTV's special economic critic: "If the economic
growth begins to decline, people cannot handle it.
In addition, local revenues rely on this high-speed growth
to support the luxury of local officials.
When growth is lacking, the officials do not have
enough income.
Thus, officials may appear to be tired and this group
would collapse."

Michael Auslin pointed out that the third crisis China faces
is the irresolvable territorial disputes.
He said that the longer the territorial disputes, the more
nationalist demonstrations related accidents will occur.
Although it is difficult to imagine the outbreak of full-scale
war surrounding these disputes,
even a minor armed conflict could trigger worrisome
negative political and economic consequences.

The Asia-Pacific summit held this week was affected by
the sovereignty of China and other countries.
Southeast Asian countries have not reached an agreement
on how to deal with China's growing sovereign stance.
Financial Times in the UK reported that recently the new
version of the passport from China, which includes
the South China Sea as its territory to strengthen
its sovereignty stance, has angered China's neighbors.

In the article, Michael Auslin also suggested that

"environmental disasters" and "no signs to promote reform"
will become a source of social unrest in China.

At the end of the article: If China is getting weaker
on the world stage, how will the military handle it?
If economic growth continues to slow, the debt increases,
or there's a financial crisis in the next few years, will the leadership level then split?
Both western and Asian governments should pay
close attention to these problems.

The authors said that if the Beijing authorities exhibit
any power interruption, weakening or collapse, it will have a profound impact on the world.